Official election results released; New Zealand First the Kingmaker

Official election results released; New Zealand First the Kingmaker

The Electoral Commission has released the official results for the general election. Parliament will have the following composition:

*due the death of a candidate during the campaign period, a by-election will be held for the seat of Port Waikato on 25 November. This is expected to be won by National, and will increase National’s tally to 49, the total number of seats in Parliament to 123 – the seats required for a majority will remain at 62.

Two ‘overhang’ seats were created due to Te Pāti Māori winning additional electorate seats beyond what their party vote entitled them to (compared to one overhang seat on the preliminary results), increasing the size of Parliament to 122.

What happens next?

National and ACT had 61 of 121 seats in the preliminary results, a one seat majority.

The official results give them 59 of 122 seats, meaning they are not able to form a majority without support from New Zealand First.

National, ACT, and New Zealand First have already been in informal talks ahead of the official results, but have had to wait on the official results to know the balance of power. Negotiations can now begin in earnest. Incoming Prime Minister Chris Luxon and New Zealand First Leader Winston Peters have both indicated they want to reach an agreement rapidly next week.

International engagements, including the Pacific Island Forum on 6-10 November and the APEC Leaders’ meeting on 11-17 November, have been noted by Luxon and Peters as reasons to swear in the new government quickly.

National also has an extensive 100-Day Plan, which includes passing several pieces of legislation through all stages, introducing others into Parliament, and repealing laws from the previous government. To achieve this, the new government will need Parliament to sit for as much time before Christmas as possible – the earliest Parliament may be opened is 10 November.

Until the new government is agreed and formally sworn in, the outgoing government remains in office in a ‘caretaker’ role.

Shifts from the Preliminary results

The official results include 567,000 special and overseas votes that were not included in the preliminary results. These represent one in five votes and tend to skew to the left, compared to ordinary votes. This can be seen in the changes between the preliminary and official results:

Change in total seats: determined by share of the party vote, and any ‘overhang’ seats where a party wins more electorates than its seat entitlement under the party vote.

** TPM’s six electorate victories give it more seats than its entitlement under the party vote of four, this increases the total number of seats in Parliament to 122.

Change in electorate winners: with the exception of overhangs, change in electorate winners does not affect parties’ seat count but can affect the specific MPs elected:

Takutai Tarsh Kemp won Tāmaki Makaurau by just four votes and Labour’s Helen White held Mt Albert by just 20 votes, raising the possibility of recounts in both seats. 

List of MPs by party